{"punk":2542,"name":"CryptoPunk #2542","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2542","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2542.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Earring","Do-rag"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":33.3476,"usd":75820,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.7421,"high_eth":36.174,"low_usd":69896,"high_usd":82246},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3402,"high_eth":39.2399,"low_usd":64435,"high_usd":89217},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0973,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":32.9087,"usd":74822,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.3375,"high_eth":35.6979,"low_usd":68976,"high_usd":81164},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.9672,"high_eth":38.7234,"low_usd":63587,"high_usd":88043},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0973,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":7,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":7,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.4},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":52,"weighted_sales":18}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":21,"date":"2021-04-14","block":12237559,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":31.1007},{"eth":20.69,"date":"2021-05-04","block":12367018,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":153,"adjusted_eth":31.8202},{"eth":32.75,"date":"2021-08-02","block":12943307,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":273,"adjusted_eth":29.539},{"eth":36,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12960220,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":156,"adjusted_eth":31.303},{"eth":40,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12963238,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":178,"adjusted_eth":26.9937},{"eth":48,"date":"2021-08-19","block":13056478,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":196,"adjusted_eth":29.5407},{"eth":96.99,"date":"2021-09-16","block":13235635,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":122,"adjusted_eth":28.517},{"eth":109,"date":"2021-09-16","block":13236350,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":32.0481},{"eth":59,"date":"2025-05-22","block":22537026,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":194,"adjusted_eth":37.7434}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4376,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.001,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.9991,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.29,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7853,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9803,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.88,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3168,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9065,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.745,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7107,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.64,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2224,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6743,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0295,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 33.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.7 to 36.2 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 39.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Chinstrap -5%, Earring -2%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2542","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}