{"punk":2557,"name":"CryptoPunk #2557","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2557","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2557.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mole","Goat","Do-rag"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":27.6792,"usd":62932,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.7465,"high_eth":30.9595,"low_usd":56264,"high_usd":70390},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.1246,"high_eth":34.6286,"low_usd":50303,"high_usd":78733},"sigma_log":0.112,"multiple_of_floor":0.9108,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":27.3149,"usd":62104,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.4208,"high_eth":30.552,"low_usd":55524,"high_usd":69464},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":21.8334,"high_eth":34.1728,"low_usd":49641,"high_usd":77696},"sigma_log":0.112,"multiple_of_floor":0.9108,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.7},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0761,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":16.8},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":52,"weighted_sales":18}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":9.69,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11875206,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":77,"adjusted_eth":22.5624},{"eth":13,"date":"2021-02-20","block":11894862,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":117,"adjusted_eth":28.7939},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-03-21","block":12082968,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":30.0043},{"eth":13.5,"date":"2021-06-23","block":12690795,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":218,"adjusted_eth":28.4515},{"eth":54,"date":"2021-12-24","block":13867875,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":24.9148},{"eth":64.99,"date":"2021-12-24","block":13869158,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":29.9854},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-12-24","block":13869158,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":40.99,"date":"2025-07-20","block":22962353,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":26.0167},{"eth":48.95,"date":"2025-07-23","block":22980243,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":139,"adjusted_eth":30.1192}],"comparables":[{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.9991,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1835,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.64,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2224,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6743,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.65,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9496,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.501,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.501,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.8,"date":"2026-04-27","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9026,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.89,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0004,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.98,"date":"2026-02-23","punk":6755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1062,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1568,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 27.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 24.7 to 31.0 ETH, 2σ range 22.1 to 34.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Mole -7%, Goat -7%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2557","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}