{"punk":2581,"name":"CryptoPunk #2581","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2581","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2581.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Cowboy Hat","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":75.2063,"usd":182231,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":48.9822,"high_eth":115.4701,"low_usd":118688,"high_usd":279794},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.9023,"high_eth":177.2905,"low_usd":77302,"high_usd":429589},"sigma_log":0.4288,"multiple_of_floor":2.4747,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":75.2063,"usd":182231,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":48.9822,"high_eth":115.4701,"low_usd":118688,"high_usd":279794},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.9023,"high_eth":177.2905,"low_usd":77302,"high_usd":429589},"sigma_log":0.4288,"multiple_of_floor":2.4747,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":62,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":62,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":98,"ask_usd":219106,"z":0.62,"z_text":"0.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-06-09T15:40:47.000Z","days_listed":514},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3},{"pct":95.5,"beta":0.6705,"term":"attr:Cowboy Hat","label":"Cowboy Hat","sales_12m":10,"weighted_sales":2.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-06-20","block":7998084,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":27,"adjusted_eth":28.0092},{"eth":0.6,"date":"2020-01-03","block":9204039,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":41.4409},{"eth":2,"date":"2020-05-22","block":10114296,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":127,"adjusted_eth":60.78},{"eth":1.6,"date":"2020-08-15","block":10663274,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":57.2047},{"eth":5.98,"date":"2021-01-25","block":11727462,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":185,"adjusted_eth":42.1652},{"eth":7.5,"date":"2021-01-27","block":11737183,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":196,"adjusted_eth":45.7681},{"eth":10,"date":"2021-02-03","block":11782761,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":288,"adjusted_eth":55.3552}],"comparables":[{"eth":72,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":9170,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":73.278,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.29,"date":"2025-08-22","punk":750,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3295,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.5,"date":"2025-08-18","punk":750,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.532,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.5,"date":"2025-08-09","punk":750,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1302,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52,"date":"2025-08-08","punk":750,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4828,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.9,"date":"2025-05-07","punk":9488,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3264,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9783,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2116,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.8425,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 75.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 49.0 to 115 ETH, 2σ range 31.9 to 177 ETH, confidence Low, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Chinstrap -5%, Cowboy Hat +96%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2581","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}