{"punk":2614,"name":"CryptoPunk #2614","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2614","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2614.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Luxurious Beard","Police Cap","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.2543,"usd":75732,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.795,"high_eth":33.9236,"low_usd":69773,"high_usd":82200},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.5292,"high_eth":36.8209,"low_usd":64282,"high_usd":89220},"sigma_log":0.082,"multiple_of_floor":1.0284,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.2543,"usd":75732,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.795,"high_eth":33.9236,"low_usd":69773,"high_usd":82200},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.5292,"high_eth":36.8209,"low_usd":64282,"high_usd":89220},"sigma_log":0.082,"multiple_of_floor":1.0284,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":15,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":15,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":95,"ask_usd":212399,"z":13.56,"z_text":"13.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-07-10T21:56:42.000Z","days_listed":1579},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.8,"beta":-0.081,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Blue","label":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65,"weighted_sales":6.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.2,"date":"2017-06-25","block":3929213,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":43.4143},{"eth":0.6,"date":"2019-05-13","block":7752927,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":98,"adjusted_eth":41.4409},{"eth":50,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12964737,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":34.1922},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-04-26","block":14661719,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":489,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":76.99,"date":"2022-06-21","block":15004218,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":207,"adjusted_eth":34.6883},{"eth":77.95,"date":"2022-07-08","block":15104975,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":277,"adjusted_eth":32.9243}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.75,"date":"2026-03-24","punk":4824,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7745,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.6,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":4824,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1179,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":4824,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9998,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50.4878,"date":"2025-10-10","punk":9891,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0318,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55.99,"date":"2025-08-10","punk":9891,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3358,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.4,"date":"2025-08-03","punk":4824,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9012,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54,"date":"2025-07-27","punk":7547,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1903,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":4824,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2624,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0356,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Luxurious Beard","sales_12m":41},{"attribute":"Police Cap","sales_12m":29}],"summary":["Estimate 31.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.8 to 33.9 ETH, 2σ range 26.5 to 36.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2614","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}