{"punk":2647,"name":"CryptoPunk #2647","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2647","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2647.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Frumpy Hair"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.2575,"usd":73316,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7384,"high_eth":33.0053,"low_usd":67212,"high_usd":79975},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4291,"high_eth":36.0026,"low_usd":61617,"high_usd":87237},"sigma_log":0.0869,"multiple_of_floor":0.9956,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.2575,"usd":73316,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7384,"high_eth":33.0053,"low_usd":67212,"high_usd":79975},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4291,"high_eth":36.0026,"low_usd":61617,"high_usd":87237},"sigma_log":0.0869,"multiple_of_floor":0.9956,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":25,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":25,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.7},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.076,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59,"weighted_sales":19.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":19.75,"date":"2021-04-15","block":12244408,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":285,"adjusted_eth":30.7954},{"eth":20.15,"date":"2021-04-23","block":12297408,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":31.1},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-06-29","block":12727624,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":131,"adjusted_eth":36.6776},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-02-03","block":14130622,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":110,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-02-03","block":14130622,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":114,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":69.95,"date":"2022-02-05","block":14149041,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":30.3726},{"eth":67.45,"date":"2022-02-10","block":14179819,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":31.5403},{"eth":65.3,"date":"2022-12-04","block":16110612,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":65.65,"date":"2022-12-12","block":16165168,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":154,"adjusted_eth":30.9318},{"eth":69.78,"date":"2023-03-17","block":16848847,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":256,"adjusted_eth":30.1224},{"eth":54.95,"date":"2023-11-10","block":18537897,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":181,"adjusted_eth":28.3039},{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","block":26030697,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":30.3806}],"comparables":[{"eth":140,"date":"2025-08-05","punk":9797,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":82.6136,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.59,"date":"2025-01-26","punk":8078,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1318,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.99,"date":"2024-12-03","punk":6048,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2791,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3391,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9803,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2116,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":7711,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.1839,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.4,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8114,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.31,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0538,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.068,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 30.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.7 to 33.0 ETH, 2σ range 25.4 to 36.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Muttonchops -9%, Frumpy Hair -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2647","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}