{"punk":2654,"name":"CryptoPunk #2654","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2654","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2654.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Earring","Straight Hair Dark","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":37.8295,"usd":91664,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.6537,"high_eth":42.5234,"low_usd":81546,"high_usd":103038},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9388,"high_eth":47.7998,"low_usd":72544,"high_usd":115823},"sigma_log":0.117,"multiple_of_floor":1.2448,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":37.8295,"usd":91664,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.6537,"high_eth":42.5234,"low_usd":81546,"high_usd":103038},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9388,"high_eth":47.7998,"low_usd":72544,"high_usd":115823},"sigma_log":0.117,"multiple_of_floor":1.2448,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2095,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":9,"date":"2021-02-04","block":11792578,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":261,"adjusted_eth":51.6057},{"eth":17.99,"date":"2021-02-14","block":11851522,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":162,"adjusted_eth":66.2686},{"eth":21.2,"date":"2021-06-10","block":12609453,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":44.4323},{"eth":27.99,"date":"2021-07-04","block":12763356,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":47.6536},{"eth":40,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12936109,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":468,"adjusted_eth":40.5335},{"eth":128.88,"date":"2021-08-24","block":13089772,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":267,"adjusted_eth":51.8763},{"eth":54.68,"date":"2023-12-16","block":18800273,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":55,"date":"2024-03-12","block":19420925,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":341,"adjusted_eth":33.4424},{"eth":65,"date":"2025-08-13","block":23132440,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":37.9875},{"eth":86,"date":"2026-06-30","block":25432044,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":703,"adjusted_eth":81.7498}],"comparables":[{"eth":92.5,"date":"2025-10-04","punk":9205,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":57.4862,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":30.008,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3976,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9598,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2710,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3999,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.4,"date":"2026-03-22","punk":563,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.592,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-02-24","punk":563,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.693,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":2710,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.9507,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.5,"date":"2026-01-23","punk":6667,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":40.7059,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":25.65,"date":"2026-01-16","punk":6667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.0286,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2095,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303},{"attribute":"Straight Hair Dark","sales_12m":29},{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 37.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.7 to 42.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.9 to 47.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2654","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}