{"punk":2715,"name":"CryptoPunk #2715","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2715","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2715.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Frown","Luxurious Beard","Earring","Medical Mask"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":36.4094,"usd":88223,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.7302,"high_eth":40.5022,"low_usd":79308,"high_usd":98140},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4228,"high_eth":45.0551,"low_usd":71294,"high_usd":109172},"sigma_log":0.1065,"multiple_of_floor":1.1981,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":36.4094,"usd":88223,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.7302,"high_eth":40.5022,"low_usd":79308,"high_usd":98140},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4228,"high_eth":45.0551,"low_usd":71294,"high_usd":109172},"sigma_log":0.1065,"multiple_of_floor":1.1981,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":32,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":32,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":85,"ask_usd":190041,"z":7.96,"z_text":"8.0σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2021-11-17T20:20:36.000Z","days_listed":1814},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":7.6,"date":"2020-10-09","block":11023634,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":188,"adjusted_eth":51.3253},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2021-05-02","block":12351895,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":124,"adjusted_eth":56.5517},{"eth":49.99,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12936645,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":280,"adjusted_eth":46.3877},{"eth":116.69,"date":"2021-11-10","block":13589544,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":118,"adjusted_eth":42.7254}],"comparables":[{"eth":39.88,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":4714,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9737,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":60.45,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1941,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":54.0316,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2026-08-24","punk":9478,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":44.0299,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-05-20","punk":4714,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.9853,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":130,"date":"2026-05-19","punk":8870,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":116.2655,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.25,"date":"2026-05-11","punk":4953,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.0575,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-10","punk":9110,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5723,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-03-11","punk":4953,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1569,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1171,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40},{"attribute":"Luxurious Beard","sales_12m":41},{"attribute":"Medical Mask","sales_12m":12}],"summary":["Estimate 36.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 40.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.4 to 45.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2715","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}