{"punk":2778,"name":"CryptoPunk #2778","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2778","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2778.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Front Beard","Messy Hair","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.4211,"usd":76136,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.9642,"high_eth":34.0864,"low_usd":70183,"high_usd":82594},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6995,"high_eth":36.9777,"low_usd":64695,"high_usd":89600},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0339,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.4211,"usd":76136,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.9642,"high_eth":34.0864,"low_usd":70183,"high_usd":82594},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6995,"high_eth":36.9777,"low_usd":64695,"high_usd":89600},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0339,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":27,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":27,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":65,"ask_usd":145325,"z":8.93,"z_text":"8.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-09-11T16:08:47.000Z","days_listed":420},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0757,"term":"attr:Front Beard","label":"Front Beard","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":11.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":25,"date":"2021-02-22","block":11909227,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":230,"adjusted_eth":32.3298},{"eth":150,"date":"2021-08-29","block":13120560,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":79,"adjusted_eth":35.7529}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-03-30","punk":8205,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0326,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":30.2,"date":"2026-03-23","punk":8205,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.2254,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":36.95,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":8205,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5581,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":39.25,"date":"2026-04-03","punk":8833,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.4064,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2025-12-22","punk":8833,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.7341,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.5,"date":"2025-10-06","punk":8109,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8892,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-09-23","punk":8109,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7234,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.1,"date":"2025-09-18","punk":2642,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7809,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0303,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 31.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.0 to 34.1 ETH, 2σ range 26.7 to 37.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Front Beard -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2778","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}