{"punk":2803,"name":"CryptoPunk #2803","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2803","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2803.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Knitted Cap","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.1103,"usd":77806,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.6382,"high_eth":34.7887,"low_usd":71816,"high_usd":84296},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3564,"high_eth":37.6905,"low_usd":66287,"high_usd":91327},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0566,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.1103,"usd":77806,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.6382,"high_eth":34.7887,"low_usd":71816,"high_usd":84296},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3564,"high_eth":37.6905,"low_usd":66287,"high_usd":91327},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0566,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.36,"date":"2019-01-22","block":7110118,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":36.59},{"eth":67.95,"date":"2022-04-02","block":14506158,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":19,"adjusted_eth":30.3677},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-04-02","block":14506240,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":166,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-06-14","block":14963095,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":402,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-06-20","block":14995891,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":641,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-08-26","block":15414706,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":239,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-02-03","block":16548304,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":221,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":29.015,"date":"2025-12-08","punk":5269,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2945,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.4559,"date":"2025-10-01","punk":9516,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.854,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.95,"date":"2025-09-29","punk":9516,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9083,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.29,"date":"2025-08-22","punk":750,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3295,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.5,"date":"2025-08-18","punk":750,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.532,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.5,"date":"2025-08-09","punk":750,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1302,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53.5,"date":"2025-08-08","punk":6117,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3333,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52,"date":"2025-08-08","punk":750,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4828,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0086,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49},{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 32.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.6 to 34.8 ETH, 2σ range 27.4 to 37.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Chinstrap -5%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2803","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}