{"punk":2824,"name":"CryptoPunk #2824","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2824","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2824.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Mustache","Knitted Cap"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":39.1641,"usd":94898,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.5897,"high_eth":44.3436,"low_usd":83814,"high_usd":107448},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.5495,"high_eth":50.208,"low_usd":74024,"high_usd":121658},"sigma_log":0.1242,"multiple_of_floor":1.2887,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":39.1641,"usd":94898,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.5897,"high_eth":44.3436,"low_usd":83814,"high_usd":107448},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.5495,"high_eth":50.208,"low_usd":74024,"high_usd":121658},"sigma_log":0.1242,"multiple_of_floor":1.2887,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":6.25,"date":"2020-10-04","block":10991295,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":170,"adjusted_eth":34.5341},{"eth":3.8,"date":"2020-10-23","block":11111521,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":182,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":24,"date":"2021-02-22","block":11909121,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":31.0366},{"eth":25.95,"date":"2021-02-23","block":11910929,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":57,"adjusted_eth":33.7017},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-04-16","block":12253232,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":86,"adjusted_eth":33.1527},{"eth":21.5,"date":"2021-07-24","block":12890067,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":68,"adjusted_eth":31.1284},{"eth":25.5,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12929754,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":147,"adjusted_eth":29.8976},{"eth":53.99,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12970710,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":90,"adjusted_eth":33.4848},{"eth":54.2,"date":"2021-08-22","block":13076320,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":105,"adjusted_eth":31.0781},{"eth":146.88,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13114814,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":32.4167},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-04-02","block":14508911,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-04-02","block":16961080,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":77,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-05-10","block":17229882,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":315,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-05-19","block":17290024,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":235,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-12-31","block":18905145,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":138,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.4,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":7440,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.3734,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":2473,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.975,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":5579,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.5285,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":4202,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9259,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":45,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":8879,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":44.5456,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":145,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":7779,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":140.9194,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38.69,"date":"2026-10-13","punk":1349,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.5772,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.19,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51},{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49}],"summary":["Estimate 39.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.6 to 44.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.5 to 50.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2824","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}