{"punk":2825,"name":"CryptoPunk #2825","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2825","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2825.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Handlebars","Bandana","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.5528,"usd":83724,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.6959,"high_eth":37.6673,"low_usd":76802,"high_usd":91271},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0751,"high_eth":41.0625,"low_usd":70451,"high_usd":99498},"sigma_log":0.0863,"multiple_of_floor":1.137,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.5528,"usd":83724,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.6959,"high_eth":37.6673,"low_usd":76802,"high_usd":91271},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0751,"high_eth":41.0625,"low_usd":70451,"high_usd":99498},"sigma_log":0.0863,"multiple_of_floor":1.137,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":54,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":54,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":69,"ask_usd":154268,"z":8.01,"z_text":"8.0σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-08-13T18:07:59.000Z","days_listed":449},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":32,"weighted_sales":11.7},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0357,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":14.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2017-07-20","block":4050433,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":0.38,"date":"2019-05-06","block":7704703,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":100,"adjusted_eth":26.2459},{"eth":5.8,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10953145,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":47,"adjusted_eth":30.4425},{"eth":15.99,"date":"2021-04-02","block":12162265,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":265,"adjusted_eth":32.3957},{"eth":16.97,"date":"2021-05-24","block":12493748,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":119,"adjusted_eth":34.3812},{"eth":110,"date":"2021-09-21","block":13267647,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":34.4629},{"eth":50,"date":"2022-05-15","block":14778625,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":28.2435},{"eth":55,"date":"2022-06-10","block":14939287,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":34.5341}],"comparables":[{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0508,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-07-06","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7882,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.94,"date":"2026-05-15","punk":4052,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2746,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.4,"date":"2026-05-13","punk":4052,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.2122,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.1,"date":"2026-01-02","punk":2947,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4237,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28,"date":"2026-01-02","punk":2666,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4009,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.57,"date":"2025-12-04","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8645,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.75,"date":"2025-12-03","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5807,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0648,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 34.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.7 to 37.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.1 to 41.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Handlebars -6%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2825","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}