{"punk":2861,"name":"CryptoPunk #2861","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2861","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2861.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Mole"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":40.873,"usd":99039,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.1772,"high_eth":51.9188,"low_usd":77968,"high_usd":125804},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.3315,"high_eth":65.9497,"low_usd":61380,"high_usd":159802},"sigma_log":0.2392,"multiple_of_floor":1.3449,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":40.873,"usd":99039,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.1772,"high_eth":51.9188,"low_usd":77968,"high_usd":125804},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.3315,"high_eth":65.9497,"low_usd":61380,"high_usd":159802},"sigma_log":0.2392,"multiple_of_floor":1.3449,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","block":26354496,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","block":26354496,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 0-1","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":14.9,"beta":0.1387,"term":"count1","label":"1 attribute (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":3.5},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 0-1","seen":{"n":16,"cover1":0.5,"cover2":0.625,"bias_pct":27.5,"within10":0.25,"within25":0.5,"MdALE_pct":27.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":35,"cover1":0.714,"cover2":0.914,"bias_pct":6.6,"within10":0.571,"within25":0.714,"MdALE_pct":7.8}},"own_sales":[{"eth":50,"date":"2025-01-28","block":21721499,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":138,"adjusted_eth":39.4675}],"comparables":[{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6018,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.49,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":926,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8587,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.849,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":926,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6314,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":926,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7983,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36.8,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4851,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":5559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8998,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5861,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3212,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2327,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 40.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.2 to 51.9 ETH, 2σ range 25.3 to 65.9 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 08:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 1 attribute (vs 3) +15%, Mole -7%.","In the backtest, Male 0-1 sales landed within ±7.8% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±27.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2861","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}