{"punk":2904,"name":"CryptoPunk #2904","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2904","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2904.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Choker","Bandana","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":36.1095,"usd":87496,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.7461,"high_eth":39.8184,"low_usd":79346,"high_usd":96483},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.696,"high_eth":43.9082,"low_usd":71956,"high_usd":106393},"sigma_log":0.0978,"multiple_of_floor":1.1882,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":36.1095,"usd":87496,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.7461,"high_eth":39.8184,"low_usd":79346,"high_usd":96483},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.696,"high_eth":43.9082,"low_usd":71956,"high_usd":106393},"sigma_log":0.0978,"multiple_of_floor":1.1882,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","block":26356886,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","block":26356886,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":600,"ask_usd":1341465,"z":28.74,"z_text":"28.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2021-07-14T13:42:36.000Z","days_listed":1941},"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":17.7,"beta":0.163,"term":"attr:Choker","label":"Choker","sales_12m":2,"weighted_sales":0.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":25,"date":"2021-02-12","block":11844070,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":133,"adjusted_eth":125.5785},{"eth":33.69,"date":"2021-02-14","block":11852232,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":190,"adjusted_eth":124.1017}],"comparables":[{"eth":47.3,"date":"2025-10-03","punk":8548,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2812,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":32.46,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":7897,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0135,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.9,"date":"2026-09-07","punk":8450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3291,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-07-21","punk":2154,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3397,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.5,"date":"2026-06-02","punk":8400,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2016,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.45,"date":"2026-05-27","punk":3116,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1577,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.25,"date":"2026-05-19","punk":2467,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7371,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.01,"date":"2026-05-15","punk":5032,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4575,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.163,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":88},{"attribute":"Bandana","sales_12m":63},{"attribute":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65}],"summary":["Estimate 36.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 39.8 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 16:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Choker +18%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2904","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}