{"punk":2942,"name":"CryptoPunk #2942","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2942","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2942.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Spots","Frumpy Hair"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.3036,"usd":73428,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7889,"high_eth":33.0458,"low_usd":67335,"high_usd":80073},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4829,"high_eth":36.0362,"low_usd":61747,"high_usd":87319},"sigma_log":0.0866,"multiple_of_floor":0.9972,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.3036,"usd":73428,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7889,"high_eth":33.0458,"low_usd":67335,"high_usd":80073},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4829,"high_eth":36.0362,"low_usd":61747,"high_usd":87319},"sigma_log":0.0866,"multiple_of_floor":0.9972,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":3,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":3,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.076,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59,"weighted_sales":19.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.35,"date":"2019-04-07","block":7518053,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":1,"date":"2020-01-13","block":9275088,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":53.3158},{"eth":2,"date":"2020-05-26","block":10142066,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":126,"adjusted_eth":49.0161},{"eth":3.45,"date":"2020-09-14","block":10862617,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":127,"adjusted_eth":54.0441},{"eth":9.98,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10953370,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":67,"adjusted_eth":52.3821},{"eth":15,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11876759,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":71,"adjusted_eth":35.3921},{"eth":15.75,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11901126,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":210,"adjusted_eth":23.9321},{"eth":26,"date":"2021-02-23","block":11915516,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":330,"adjusted_eth":33.7667},{"eth":37.4,"date":"2021-02-23","block":11916257,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":36,"adjusted_eth":48.5721},{"eth":45,"date":"2023-04-21","block":17096252,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":157,"adjusted_eth":29.5367}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.7499,"date":"2026-06-03","punk":1753,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.279,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.77,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":1753,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8653,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":7711,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.1839,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.4,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8114,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.31,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0538,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.94,"date":"2026-10-05","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2746,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":7559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2883,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-09-28","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7853,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0665,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Spots","sales_12m":14}],"summary":["Estimate 30.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.8 to 33.0 ETH, 2σ range 25.5 to 36.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Frumpy Hair -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2942","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}