{"punk":2976,"name":"CryptoPunk #2976","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2976","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2976.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Headband","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.696,"usd":79225,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.178,"high_eth":35.4242,"low_usd":73124,"high_usd":85836},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.8538,"high_eth":38.38,"low_usd":67492,"high_usd":92998},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0759,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.696,"usd":79225,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.178,"high_eth":35.4242,"low_usd":73124,"high_usd":85836},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.8538,"high_eth":38.38,"low_usd":67492,"high_usd":92998},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0759,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.44,"date":"2019-05-06","block":7704759,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":5.55,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10953161,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":232,"adjusted_eth":29.1303},{"eth":17.49,"date":"2021-03-11","block":12014396,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":85,"adjusted_eth":25.3105},{"eth":18.97,"date":"2021-03-11","block":12018068,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":27.4523},{"eth":23.74,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12926010,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":427,"adjusted_eth":27.8341},{"eth":37.99,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12940353,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":117,"adjusted_eth":35.2524},{"eth":50,"date":"2021-08-11","block":13001768,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":107,"adjusted_eth":32.5514},{"eth":58.14,"date":"2021-08-21","block":13067587,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":519,"adjusted_eth":33.9784},{"eth":91,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13107500,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":19,"adjusted_eth":30.0597},{"eth":99.7,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13111812,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":100,"adjusted_eth":22.004},{"eth":150,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13115211,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":33.1053},{"eth":135,"date":"2021-09-25","block":13293024,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":37.9875},{"eth":67.5,"date":"2022-08-26","block":15414893,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":30.3945},{"eth":69.95,"date":"2022-11-30","block":16085659,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":102,"adjusted_eth":32.4596},{"eth":30.69,"date":"2026-02-20","block":24501128,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":446,"adjusted_eth":31.2976}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7067,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2116,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.15,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8651,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.5085,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35.9,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":8159,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.646,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":9872,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.2416,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":45,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":6489,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":41.4535,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36.49,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.6141,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0095,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 32.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.2 to 35.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.9 to 38.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2976","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}