{"punk":2978,"name":"CryptoPunk #2978","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2978","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2978.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Pink With Hat","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":40.737,"usd":98709,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.0266,"high_eth":47.3785,"low_usd":84872,"high_usd":114802},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1166,"high_eth":55.1027,"low_usd":72975,"high_usd":133518},"sigma_log":0.151,"multiple_of_floor":1.3405,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":40.737,"usd":98709,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.0266,"high_eth":47.3785,"low_usd":84872,"high_usd":114802},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1166,"high_eth":55.1027,"low_usd":72975,"high_usd":133518},"sigma_log":0.151,"multiple_of_floor":1.3405,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7},{"pct":29.2,"beta":0.2562,"term":"attr:Pink With Hat","label":"Pink With Hat","sales_12m":9,"weighted_sales":3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":41,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201274,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":63.2803},{"eth":35,"date":"2021-07-06","block":12774780,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":227,"adjusted_eth":59.0917},{"eth":39,"date":"2021-07-16","block":12838690,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":137,"adjusted_eth":59.5583},{"eth":56,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12940494,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":51.9646},{"eth":130,"date":"2022-08-09","block":15311008,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":84,"adjusted_eth":53.4239},{"eth":76,"date":"2023-05-12","block":17240994,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":396,"adjusted_eth":46.6688},{"eth":35,"date":"2024-05-24","block":19936380,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":33.2495},{"eth":35.98,"date":"2024-06-25","block":20171630,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":41.1219},{"eth":33,"date":"2024-08-25","block":20606849,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":69,"adjusted_eth":34.1228},{"eth":34.6,"date":"2024-08-30","block":20643959,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":266,"adjusted_eth":35.0498}],"comparables":[{"eth":36.25,"date":"2026-07-22","punk":4710,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4262,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.75,"date":"2026-03-05","punk":4710,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3063,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.6,"date":"2026-02-26","punk":5055,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1456,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":24,"date":"2026-02-12","punk":5055,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":24.4342,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-08-13","punk":5055,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1433,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2025-04-07","punk":4368,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3258,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":57,"date":"2025-03-05","punk":1418,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.1928,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.8,"date":"2026-11-03","punk":1721,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7889,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2836,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 40.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.0 to 47.4 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 55.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Pink With Hat +29%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2978","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}