{"punk":2981,"name":"CryptoPunk #2981","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2981","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2981.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mohawk Thin","Welding Goggles"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":40.7677,"usd":98783,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.0405,"high_eth":47.4309,"low_usd":84906,"high_usd":114929},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.118,"high_eth":55.1832,"low_usd":72978,"high_usd":133713},"sigma_log":0.1514,"multiple_of_floor":1.3415,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":40.7677,"usd":98783,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.0405,"high_eth":47.4309,"low_usd":84906,"high_usd":114929},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.118,"high_eth":55.1832,"low_usd":72978,"high_usd":133713},"sigma_log":0.1514,"multiple_of_floor":1.3415,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":26,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":26,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":54,"ask_usd":120732,"z":1.86,"z_text":"1.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-10-05T18:16:59.000Z","days_listed":31},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7},{"pct":29.3,"beta":0.2569,"term":"attr:Welding Goggles","label":"Welding Goggles","sales_12m":4,"weighted_sales":0.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":5,"date":"2020-05-19","block":10095692,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":113,"adjusted_eth":189.9375},{"eth":22.5,"date":"2021-02-13","block":11846538,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":106,"adjusted_eth":94.9688},{"eth":47,"date":"2021-04-09","block":12202908,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":150,"adjusted_eth":75.1753},{"eth":88,"date":"2022-01-25","block":14075189,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":34.3081}],"comparables":[{"eth":52.5,"date":"2026-07-07","punk":1470,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":49.1823,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41,"date":"2025-11-23","punk":7670,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.6858,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3859,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4058,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.49,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":5931,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0403,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.941,"date":"2026-09-15","punk":6096,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.1298,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.98,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":2617,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3995,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-06-30","punk":4972,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8938,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":2617,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9131,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2843,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51}],"summary":["Estimate 40.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.0 to 47.4 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 55.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Welding Goggles +29%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2981","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}