{"punk":3011,"name":"CryptoPunk #3011","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3011","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3011.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Frown","Normal Beard","Earring","Vampire Hair","Pipe","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":6,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.6111,"usd":71750,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.803,"high_eth":32.7135,"low_usd":64946,"high_usd":79267},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.2612,"high_eth":36.1409,"low_usd":58787,"high_usd":87572},"sigma_log":0.0996,"multiple_of_floor":0.9744,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.6111,"usd":71750,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.803,"high_eth":32.7135,"low_usd":64946,"high_usd":79267},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.2612,"high_eth":36.1409,"low_usd":58787,"high_usd":87572},"sigma_log":0.0996,"multiple_of_floor":0.9744,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1109,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":23,"date":"2020-10-07","block":11009207,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":158.8568},{"eth":42,"date":"2020-10-12","block":11042298,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":249.0498},{"eth":400,"date":"2021-03-12","block":12020612,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":177,"adjusted_eth":553.0482},{"eth":667,"date":"2021-04-27","block":12323317,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":284,"adjusted_eth":922.2079}],"comparables":[{"eth":56.88,"date":"2025-07-26","punk":2688,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2361,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42.25,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":6724,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7172,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":44,"date":"2024-12-02","punk":6724,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0959,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":41,"date":"2024-11-30","punk":6724,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1498,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":4202,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9259,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3703,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9431,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0896,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40},{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":39},{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 29.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.8 to 32.7 ETH, 2σ range 24.3 to 36.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%, Vampire Hair -11%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3011","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}