{"punk":3091,"name":"CryptoPunk #3091","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3091","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3091.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Peak Spike","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.6789,"usd":84030,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.7893,"high_eth":37.8312,"low_usd":77028,"high_usd":91668},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.1404,"high_eth":41.27,"low_usd":70610,"high_usd":100001},"sigma_log":0.087,"multiple_of_floor":1.1411,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.6789,"usd":84030,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.7893,"high_eth":37.8312,"low_usd":77028,"high_usd":91668},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.1404,"high_eth":41.27,"low_usd":70610,"high_usd":100001},"sigma_log":0.087,"multiple_of_floor":1.1411,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.7},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0603,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":4.44,"date":"2021-02-01","block":11773189,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":251,"adjusted_eth":26.4572},{"eth":25,"date":"2021-04-14","block":12237449,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":37.5185},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2022-05-30","block":14869784,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":98,"adjusted_eth":28.6935},{"eth":49.95,"date":"2022-06-14","block":14959102,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":147,"adjusted_eth":31.6312},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-05-05","block":17195363,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-05-05","block":17195363,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":84,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":56.35,"date":"2023-05-14","block":17258617,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":232,"adjusted_eth":34.6025},{"eth":49.49,"date":"2025-09-16","block":23373776,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":30.7253},{"eth":48,"date":"2025-09-24","block":23429737,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":482,"adjusted_eth":31.4447}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4444,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2116,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":2235,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4737,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.95,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6043,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.44,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2636,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":140,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":7360,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":131.1529,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-06-04","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5973,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.7,"date":"2026-05-04","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.1626,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0684,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 34.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.8 to 37.8 ETH, 2σ range 29.1 to 41.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Muttonchops -9%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3091","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}