{"punk":3168,"name":"CryptoPunk #3168","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3168","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3168.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Do-rag"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.2757,"usd":70937,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.6332,"high_eth":32.1804,"low_usd":64534,"high_usd":77976},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.2292,"high_eth":35.3733,"low_usd":58709,"high_usd":85712},"sigma_log":0.0946,"multiple_of_floor":0.9633,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.2757,"usd":70937,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.6332,"high_eth":32.1804,"low_usd":64534,"high_usd":77976},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.2292,"high_eth":35.3733,"low_usd":58709,"high_usd":85712},"sigma_log":0.0946,"multiple_of_floor":0.9633,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":20.5,"date":"2021-02-27","block":11936808,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":232,"adjusted_eth":28.318},{"eth":20.1,"date":"2021-05-01","block":12350929,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":8,"adjusted_eth":29.1292},{"eth":20.97,"date":"2021-05-02","block":12351651,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":29.6546},{"eth":69,"date":"2023-03-17","block":16845126,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":308,"adjusted_eth":29.7857},{"eth":61.16,"date":"2023-03-23","block":16887488,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":209,"adjusted_eth":29.9831},{"eth":27.99,"date":"2024-07-05","block":20242647,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":371,"adjusted_eth":29.3417},{"eth":44.24,"date":"2024-12-04","block":21329065,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":124,"adjusted_eth":30.26},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-06-05","block":25253544,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":597,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-08-28","block":25853295,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":467,"adjusted_eth":30.0278},{"eth":29.88,"date":"2026-09-21","block":26028508,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":259,"adjusted_eth":29.292}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8569,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3878,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.29,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1959,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3802,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.9,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":5887,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.295,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.6,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0851,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.5,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":2404,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5568,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.1,"date":"2025-07-21","punk":9973,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1513,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.101,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 29.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.6 to 32.2 ETH, 2σ range 24.2 to 35.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Chinstrap -5%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3168","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}