{"punk":3193,"name":"CryptoPunk #3193","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3193","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3193.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Peak Spike","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.3392,"usd":75937,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.8814,"high_eth":34.0061,"low_usd":69982,"high_usd":82400},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6164,"high_eth":36.8999,"low_usd":64494,"high_usd":89411},"sigma_log":0.0817,"multiple_of_floor":1.0312,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.3392,"usd":75937,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.8814,"high_eth":34.0061,"low_usd":69982,"high_usd":82400},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6164,"high_eth":36.8999,"low_usd":64494,"high_usd":89411},"sigma_log":0.0817,"multiple_of_floor":1.0312,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0603,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.6},{"pct":-7.5,"beta":-0.0779,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":8.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.37,"date":"2017-07-12","block":4010221,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":29.921},{"eth":0.2,"date":"2017-08-12","block":4146851,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":34.8429},{"eth":0.15,"date":"2018-10-11","block":6495434,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":37.9875},{"eth":0.33,"date":"2019-03-13","block":7361558,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":118,"adjusted_eth":34.1112},{"eth":0.53,"date":"2020-04-06","block":9818571,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":27.2995},{"eth":90,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13107586,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":310,"adjusted_eth":29.7293},{"eth":114.8,"date":"2021-08-30","block":13127818,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":29.4436},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-10-21","block":13461473,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":93,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":65.45,"date":"2021-12-25","block":13876916,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":59,"date":"2022-01-14","block":14002163,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":29.9084},{"eth":61.99,"date":"2022-01-14","block":14005842,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":31.4241},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-03-19","block":14414188,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":294,"adjusted_eth":30.4117},{"eth":71.45,"date":"2022-03-19","block":14417556,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":31.0417},{"eth":66.5,"date":"2023-01-18","block":16430120,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":140,"adjusted_eth":30.1902},{"eth":69.69,"date":"2023-01-30","block":16523033,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":235,"adjusted_eth":31.9535},{"eth":66.8,"date":"2023-03-14","block":16826373,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":167,"adjusted_eth":30.2993},{"eth":62,"date":"2023-04-08","block":17004683,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":141,"adjusted_eth":32.7115},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-07-20","block":22963043,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":36,"adjusted_eth":28.9429}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4444,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7067,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2116,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.15,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8651,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7725,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":2235,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4737,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":39.88,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":4714,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9737,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.89,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":4457,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3018,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0329,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 31.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.9 to 34.0 ETH, 2σ range 26.6 to 36.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Peak Spike -6%, Clown Eyes Green -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3193","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}