{"punk":3226,"name":"CryptoPunk #3226","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3226","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3226.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Do-rag","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.9813,"usd":77493,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.5152,"high_eth":34.6535,"low_usd":71518,"high_usd":83968},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.2392,"high_eth":37.5489,"low_usd":66003,"high_usd":90984},"sigma_log":0.0802,"multiple_of_floor":1.0524,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.9813,"usd":77493,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.5152,"high_eth":34.6535,"low_usd":71518,"high_usd":83968},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.2392,"high_eth":37.5489,"low_usd":66003,"high_usd":90984},"sigma_log":0.0802,"multiple_of_floor":1.0524,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.7},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.05,"date":"2017-06-28","block":3941074,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":10.13},{"eth":4.99,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10952447,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":212,"adjusted_eth":26.191},{"eth":5.99,"date":"2020-10-16","block":11069708,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":49,"adjusted_eth":40.4525},{"eth":19.5,"date":"2021-04-17","block":12257153,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":29.7791},{"eth":20.65,"date":"2021-05-04","block":12367906,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":198,"adjusted_eth":32.1822},{"eth":15.95,"date":"2021-06-28","block":12723240,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":30.295},{"eth":75,"date":"2021-12-04","block":13738315,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":19,"adjusted_eth":31.2269},{"eth":32,"date":"2024-06-03","block":20010672,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":303,"adjusted_eth":30.3995},{"eth":27,"date":"2024-06-25","block":20166202,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":167,"adjusted_eth":30.8586},{"eth":38.95,"date":"2025-02-02","block":21761273,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":30.3588},{"eth":37.5,"date":"2025-02-08","block":21801650,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":94,"adjusted_eth":32.57}],"comparables":[{"eth":29.85,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3797,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2626,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":3797,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9068,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.49,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":7377,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.91,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.95,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7059,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.69,"date":"2026-04-12","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2397,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.45,"date":"2026-04-11","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0815,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.9,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":7377,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.49,"date":"2026-01-27","punk":8627,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4863,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0126,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 32.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.5 to 34.7 ETH, 2σ range 27.2 to 37.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Muttonchops -9%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3226","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}