{"punk":3263,"name":"CryptoPunk #3263","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3263","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3263.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Orange Side"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":40.1305,"usd":91242,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.7678,"high_eth":46.3203,"low_usd":79049,"high_usd":105315},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1218,"high_eth":53.4648,"low_usd":68486,"high_usd":121559},"sigma_log":0.1434,"multiple_of_floor":1.3205,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":39.6023,"usd":90041,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.3102,"high_eth":45.7106,"low_usd":78009,"high_usd":103929},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7253,"high_eth":52.7611,"low_usd":67584,"high_usd":119959},"sigma_log":0.1434,"multiple_of_floor":1.3205,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":53.2},{"pct":27.1,"beta":0.24,"term":"attr:Orange Side","label":"Orange Side","sales_12m":5,"weighted_sales":1.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":135,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12939296,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":123.6229},{"eth":150,"date":"2021-11-23","block":13671208,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":140,"adjusted_eth":53.2367},{"eth":138,"date":"2022-01-30","block":14105475,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":50.6625},{"eth":131,"date":"2022-02-02","block":14128525,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":53.1263},{"eth":70,"date":"2025-08-02","block":23056551,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":1108,"adjusted_eth":38.8831}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.33,"date":"2026-04-18","punk":3267,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.3251,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-01-19","punk":6674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4388,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.8,"date":"2026-11-03","punk":1721,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3441,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.284,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":5040,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.8934,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.75,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":5040,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2069,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":5084,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4916,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-26","punk":4381,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4817,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.27,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5468,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2674,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95}],"summary":["Estimate 40.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.8 to 46.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 53.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Orange Side +27%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3263","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}