{"punk":3274,"name":"CryptoPunk #3274","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3274","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3274.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Do-rag","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.0777,"usd":77727,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.6072,"high_eth":34.7543,"low_usd":71741,"high_usd":84213},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3269,"high_eth":37.6543,"low_usd":66215,"high_usd":91239},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0555,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.0777,"usd":77727,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.6072,"high_eth":34.7543,"low_usd":71741,"high_usd":84213},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3269,"high_eth":37.6543,"low_usd":66215,"high_usd":91239},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0555,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.8},{"pct":-7.8,"beta":-0.081,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Blue","label":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65,"weighted_sales":6.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.15,"date":"2018-12-05","block":6831088,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":63,"date":"2022-04-15","block":14591374,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":219,"adjusted_eth":29.9385},{"eth":63.75,"date":"2022-04-18","block":14607875,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":297,"adjusted_eth":31.2528},{"eth":51,"date":"2022-05-21","block":14819852,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":30.4497},{"eth":45.5,"date":"2023-09-10","block":18106496,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":256,"adjusted_eth":29.6154},{"eth":47.99,"date":"2023-09-15","block":18143247,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":301,"adjusted_eth":31.0367},{"eth":49.69,"date":"2023-10-30","block":18465469,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":249,"adjusted_eth":32.2116},{"eth":40,"date":"2024-04-17","block":19676701,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":115,"adjusted_eth":29.6633},{"eth":24,"date":"2024-08-09","block":20491898,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":268,"adjusted_eth":33.0177},{"eth":24.5,"date":"2024-08-16","block":20538166,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":33.8434},{"eth":25,"date":"2024-08-20","block":20566803,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":601,"adjusted_eth":26.3071},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2024-09-24","block":20816808,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":183,"adjusted_eth":31.3563},{"eth":29.07,"date":"2024-10-15","block":20969468,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":113,"adjusted_eth":33.1123},{"eth":29.49,"date":"2026-03-15","block":24662623,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":64,"adjusted_eth":30.9141}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8569,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3878,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.29,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1959,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3802,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.6,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0851,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2024-12-01","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6902,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2024-11-13","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5584,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.3992,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0096,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 32.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.6 to 34.8 ETH, 2σ range 27.3 to 37.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Do-rag -6%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3274","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}