{"punk":3307,"name":"CryptoPunk #3307","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3307","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3307.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":[],"attribute_count":0,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":40.5965,"usd":98369,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.0118,"high_eth":51.4835,"low_usd":77567,"high_usd":124749},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.2424,"high_eth":65.29,"low_usd":61164,"high_usd":158203},"sigma_log":0.2376,"multiple_of_floor":1.3359,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":40.5965,"usd":98369,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.0118,"high_eth":51.4835,"low_usd":77567,"high_usd":124749},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.2424,"high_eth":65.29,"low_usd":61164,"high_usd":158203},"sigma_log":0.2376,"multiple_of_floor":1.3359,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":10000,"ask_usd":22357746,"z":23.18,"z_text":"23.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2023-11-12T11:42:23.000Z","days_listed":1089},"argument":{"cell":"Male 0-1","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 0-1","seen":{"n":16,"cover1":0.5,"cover2":0.625,"bias_pct":27.5,"within10":0.25,"within25":0.5,"MdALE_pct":27.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":35,"cover1":0.714,"cover2":0.914,"bias_pct":6.6,"within10":0.571,"within25":0.714,"MdALE_pct":7.8}},"own_sales":[{"eth":10,"date":"2019-05-19","block":7787625,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":104,"adjusted_eth":706.7442},{"eth":20,"date":"2019-12-28","block":9177175,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":11,"adjusted_eth":1642.7027},{"eth":189.99,"date":"2020-12-30","block":11555597,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":159,"adjusted_eth":1057.4718},{"eth":500,"date":"2023-08-04","block":17841292,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":207,"adjusted_eth":322.8857}],"comparables":[{"eth":317,"date":"2025-04-20","punk":741,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":231.0777,"shared_attributes":0}],"premium_log":0.2259,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 40.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.0 to 51.5 ETH, 2σ range 25.2 to 65.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%.","In the backtest, Male 0-1 sales landed within ±7.8% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±27.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3307","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}