{"punk":3357,"name":"CryptoPunk #3357","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3357","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3357.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Earring","Shaved Head","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.2216,"usd":75652,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.7616,"high_eth":33.8921,"low_usd":69692,"high_usd":82123},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.4954,"high_eth":36.7909,"low_usd":64201,"high_usd":89147},"sigma_log":0.0821,"multiple_of_floor":1.0274,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.2216,"usd":75652,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.7616,"high_eth":33.8921,"low_usd":69692,"high_usd":82123},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.4954,"high_eth":36.7909,"low_usd":64201,"high_usd":89147},"sigma_log":0.0821,"multiple_of_floor":1.0274,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":54.23,"ask_usd":121246,"z":6.73,"z_text":"6.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-08-31T11:16:23.000Z","days_listed":431},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.5},{"pct":-7.5,"beta":-0.0779,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":8.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":2.9,"date":"2020-09-26","block":10940029,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":82,"adjusted_eth":29.377},{"eth":20.5,"date":"2021-05-01","block":12347988,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":29.7089},{"eth":65.42,"date":"2022-03-09","block":14351235,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":30.1458},{"eth":69.42,"date":"2022-03-11","block":14368387,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":19,"adjusted_eth":28.5091},{"eth":71.94,"date":"2022-03-21","block":14427309,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":472,"adjusted_eth":30.1553},{"eth":50,"date":"2022-06-18","block":14985649,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":20,"adjusted_eth":24.6872},{"eth":70.99,"date":"2022-06-20","block":14997174,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":131,"adjusted_eth":31.4947},{"eth":66.79,"date":"2022-06-23","block":15011445,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":265,"adjusted_eth":32.2438},{"eth":87.95,"date":"2022-07-17","block":15157851,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":351,"adjusted_eth":31.9255}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-08-19","punk":9335,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.6169,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-07-06","punk":7132,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8514,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.4849,"date":"2026-06-26","punk":8614,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6601,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":9233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2799,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.8999,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":5403,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2949,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.35,"date":"2026-05-27","punk":5403,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1354,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.65,"date":"2026-05-21","punk":8614,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.6366,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":9233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0841,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0366,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 31.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.8 to 33.9 ETH, 2σ range 26.5 to 36.8 ETH, confidence High, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Earring -2%, Shaved Head -7%, Clown Eyes Green -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3357","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}