{"punk":3383,"name":"CryptoPunk #3383","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3383","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3383.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Handlebars","Stringy Hair","Medical Mask"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.4546,"usd":78640,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.9592,"high_eth":35.1579,"low_usd":72594,"high_usd":85190},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6556,"high_eth":38.0864,"low_usd":67012,"high_usd":92286},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0679,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.4546,"usd":78640,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.9592,"high_eth":35.1579,"low_usd":72594,"high_usd":85190},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6556,"high_eth":38.0864,"low_usd":67012,"high_usd":92286},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0679,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":32,"weighted_sales":11.7},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":25.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":6,"date":"2020-06-28","block":10351594,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":129,"adjusted_eth":230.8101},{"eth":8,"date":"2020-09-15","block":10867809,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":43,"adjusted_eth":125.9689},{"eth":9.5,"date":"2020-09-25","block":10931766,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":265,"adjusted_eth":99.5534},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902432,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":41.7863},{"eth":120,"date":"2021-09-19","block":13258635,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":101,"adjusted_eth":37.216},{"eth":106,"date":"2021-10-20","block":13457373,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":363,"adjusted_eth":33.5556},{"eth":107.95,"date":"2021-10-29","block":13510070,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":33.8555},{"eth":115,"date":"2021-11-04","block":13549623,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":38.0082},{"eth":36.68,"date":"2025-03-02","block":21955945,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":253,"adjusted_eth":30.9726},{"eth":45.35,"date":"2025-08-29","block":23244643,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":416,"adjusted_eth":29.5558},{"eth":46.88,"date":"2025-09-03","block":23283834,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":237,"adjusted_eth":29.6871}],"comparables":[{"eth":32,"date":"2026-08-13","punk":2724,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6583,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":7461,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.7538,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-10-19","punk":7461,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8988,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.99,"date":"2025-03-31","punk":5500,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2432,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-01-27","punk":5500,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9582,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":57.5,"date":"2025-01-23","punk":7461,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.6856,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4444,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0021,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Medical Mask","sales_12m":12}],"summary":["Estimate 32.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.0 to 35.2 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 38.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Handlebars -6%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3383","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}