{"punk":3394,"name":"CryptoPunk #3394","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3394","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3394.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Mole","Headband","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.7108,"usd":68662,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0962,"high_eth":32.415,"low_usd":65053,"high_usd":72473},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5665,"high_eth":34.2138,"low_usd":61632,"high_usd":76494},"sigma_log":0.054,"multiple_of_floor":1.0106,"n1_eth":30.6589,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T07:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.7108,"usd":68662,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0962,"high_eth":32.415,"low_usd":65053,"high_usd":72473},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5665,"high_eth":34.2138,"low_usd":61632,"high_usd":76494},"sigma_log":0.054,"multiple_of_floor":1.0106,"n1_eth":30.6589,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T07:04:23.000Z","block":26361366,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T07:04:23.000Z","block":26361366,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0393,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":41.8},{"pct":-3.7,"beta":-0.0376,"term":"attr:Headband","label":"Headband","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.3,"date":"2020-05-22","block":10117792,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":39.507}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":8514,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.8027,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.008,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3976,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9598,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.39,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":8514,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3918,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.03,"date":"2026-09-28","punk":8514,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.0072,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.9949,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4554,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9823,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.9,"date":"2026-09-07","punk":8450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3291,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.95,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":4554,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.3228,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":100,"date":"2026-06-28","punk":2120,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":93.5077,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0017,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":87},{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":89},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.1 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.6 to 34.2 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Headband -4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3394","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}