{"punk":3421,"name":"CryptoPunk #3421","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3421","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3421.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Bandana","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":32.7037,"usd":74356,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.1845,"high_eth":35.433,"low_usd":68628,"high_usd":80561},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.8594,"high_eth":38.3901,"low_usd":63342,"high_usd":87285},"sigma_log":0.0802,"multiple_of_floor":1.0761,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":32.2732,"usd":73377,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.7872,"high_eth":34.9666,"low_usd":67725,"high_usd":79501},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.4927,"high_eth":37.8848,"low_usd":62508,"high_usd":86136},"sigma_log":0.0802,"multiple_of_floor":1.0761,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0357,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.15,"date":"2018-12-05","block":6828678,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":24.9917},{"eth":19,"date":"2021-03-19","block":12066717,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":92,"adjusted_eth":27.1467},{"eth":20.99,"date":"2021-03-23","block":12094638,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":31.0859},{"eth":18.2,"date":"2021-03-27","block":12118041,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":30.3232},{"eth":15.49,"date":"2021-04-06","block":12184537,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":72,"adjusted_eth":30.9697},{"eth":17,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201149,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":45,"adjusted_eth":25.8928},{"eth":14.9,"date":"2021-06-15","block":12636682,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":130,"adjusted_eth":29.0163},{"eth":20.25,"date":"2021-07-16","block":12838575,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":30.5175},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-07-26","block":12900399,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":113,"adjusted_eth":28.6398},{"eth":22.44,"date":"2021-07-29","block":12922576,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":53,"adjusted_eth":29.5944},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12930041,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":256,"adjusted_eth":31.8181},{"eth":56.69,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12969912,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":411,"adjusted_eth":34.6966}],"comparables":[{"eth":40,"date":"2026-01-08","punk":6056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.3798,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":49.69,"date":"2024-11-30","punk":6056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.2551,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":88.88,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4746,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":82.1928,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":6749,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.3405,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.79,"date":"2026-03-08","punk":2577,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0101,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.88,"date":"2026-03-06","punk":2577,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4796,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.88,"date":"2026-03-04","punk":6749,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0248,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":60,"date":"2026-01-08","punk":1831,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":62.0697,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.01,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":57},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 32.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.2 to 35.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.9 to 38.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3421","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}