{"punk":3438,"name":"CryptoPunk #3438","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3438","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3438.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Frown","Shadow Beard","Earring","Frumpy Hair","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":5,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.5184,"usd":83641,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.4047,"high_eth":37.9409,"low_usd":76096,"high_usd":91934},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5718,"high_eth":41.7027,"low_usd":69232,"high_usd":101049},"sigma_log":0.0945,"multiple_of_floor":1.1358,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.5184,"usd":83641,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.4047,"high_eth":37.9409,"low_usd":76096,"high_usd":91934},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5718,"high_eth":41.7027,"low_usd":69232,"high_usd":101049},"sigma_log":0.0945,"multiple_of_floor":1.1358,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":100,"ask_usd":223577,"z":11.26,"z_text":"11.3σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2024-07-23T02:25:11.000Z","days_listed":836},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.076,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59,"weighted_sales":19.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.11,"date":"2018-01-20","block":4941571,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":37.1433},{"eth":88,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12934579,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":73,"adjusted_eth":89.1737},{"eth":108,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12969186,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":294,"adjusted_eth":66.982},{"eth":115,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13083201,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":171,"adjusted_eth":51.6379},{"eth":80,"date":"2022-03-16","block":14394785,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":69,"adjusted_eth":39.0554},{"eth":62,"date":"2022-06-13","block":14958750,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":89,"adjusted_eth":40.1316},{"eth":88,"date":"2022-07-12","block":15128435,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":49,"adjusted_eth":34.8219},{"eth":99,"date":"2022-07-13","block":15136492,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":38.5967},{"eth":65,"date":"2023-09-04","block":18064474,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":431,"adjusted_eth":41.1617},{"eth":67.97,"date":"2023-11-10","block":18544008,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":114,"adjusted_eth":35.0103},{"eth":73.99,"date":"2024-02-17","block":19247504,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":84,"adjusted_eth":39.5246}],"comparables":[{"eth":40.84,"date":"2024-11-26","punk":2032,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2831,"shared_attributes":4},{"eth":32,"date":"2024-11-12","punk":2032,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3269,"shared_attributes":4},{"eth":32.4,"date":"2026-08-29","punk":3218,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8857,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-07-31","punk":8949,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.961,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":27.79,"date":"2026-04-07","punk":8949,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8952,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-02-12","punk":8949,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.6332,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":3218,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4753,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":49.98,"date":"2025-07-22","punk":8949,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9767,"shared_attributes":3}],"premium_log":0.0638,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40},{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 34.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.4 to 37.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 41.7 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Earring -2%, Frumpy Hair -7%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3438","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}