{"punk":3441,"name":"CryptoPunk #3441","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3441","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3441.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Earring","Half Shaved","3D Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":55.3051,"usd":125743,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":41.0133,"high_eth":74.5772,"low_usd":93249,"high_usd":169561},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4148,"high_eth":100.5649,"low_usd":69152,"high_usd":228647},"sigma_log":0.299,"multiple_of_floor":1.8198,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":54.5772,"usd":124088,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":40.4735,"high_eth":73.5956,"low_usd":92022,"high_usd":167329},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0145,"high_eth":99.2412,"low_usd":68242,"high_usd":225637},"sigma_log":0.299,"multiple_of_floor":1.8198,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2096,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.9},{"pct":46,"beta":0.3785,"term":"attr:3D Glasses","label":"3D Glasses","sales_12m":11,"weighted_sales":0.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":18,"date":"2020-10-08","block":11015210,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":152,"adjusted_eth":127.0165},{"eth":7.12,"date":"2020-12-24","block":11515940,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":51.4527},{"eth":24.99,"date":"2021-02-14","block":11852221,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":130,"adjusted_eth":90.8424},{"eth":30,"date":"2021-02-19","block":11884720,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":71.1225},{"eth":80,"date":"2021-05-10","block":12404323,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":195,"adjusted_eth":133.2889},{"eth":80,"date":"2021-07-12","block":12813114,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":88,"adjusted_eth":126.2737},{"eth":69.69,"date":"2025-04-04","block":22195766,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":49.0726}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9808,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-06-27","punk":4190,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.2969,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":45.75,"date":"2025-04-27","punk":4190,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8324,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":3190,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.8129,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.008,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3976,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5786,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":1612,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.2919,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":9546,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.0133,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-08-12","punk":6631,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2998,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.5881,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":88},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":306},{"attribute":"Half Shaved","sales_12m":13}],"summary":["Estimate 55.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 41.0 to 74.6 ETH, 2σ range 30.4 to 101 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%, 3D Glasses +46%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3441","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}