{"punk":3454,"name":"CryptoPunk #3454","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3454","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3454.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Handlebars","Cap","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.8081,"usd":86766,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.5807,"high_eth":39.3553,"low_usd":78946,"high_usd":95361},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.6441,"high_eth":43.2538,"low_usd":71830,"high_usd":104807},"sigma_log":0.0945,"multiple_of_floor":1.1783,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.8081,"usd":86766,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.5807,"high_eth":39.3553,"low_usd":78946,"high_usd":95361},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.6441,"high_eth":43.2538,"low_usd":71830,"high_usd":104807},"sigma_log":0.0945,"multiple_of_floor":1.1783,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":47,"ask_usd":105081,"z":2.88,"z_text":"2.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-09-22T22:26:11.000Z","days_listed":44},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":32,"weighted_sales":11.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2018-12-20","block":6922284,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":23.7,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902731,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":36.0122},{"eth":25,"date":"2021-02-24","block":11918049,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":34.5341},{"eth":125,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13112699,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":27.5878},{"eth":52,"date":"2025-10-06","block":23519034,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":145,"adjusted_eth":32.4493}],"comparables":[{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2004,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7983,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.75,"date":"2026-08-07","punk":1223,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.2205,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-01-06","punk":1223,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4535,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.99,"date":"2025-10-30","punk":5355,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.9788,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49,"date":"2025-09-29","punk":2408,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8936,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53.69,"date":"2025-05-22","punk":7161,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.8046,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.01,"date":"2025-05-08","punk":9680,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.183,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.69,"date":"2025-04-24","punk":7161,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":34.3315,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1004,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cap","sales_12m":38},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 35.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.6 to 39.4 ETH, 2σ range 29.6 to 43.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Handlebars -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3454","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}