{"punk":3474,"name":"CryptoPunk #3474","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3474","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3474.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mohawk Dark","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.2329,"usd":80526,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.6461,"high_eth":36.038,"low_usd":74258,"high_usd":87323},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2607,"high_eth":39.0799,"low_usd":68478,"high_usd":94694},"sigma_log":0.081,"multiple_of_floor":1.0935,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":33.2329,"usd":80526,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.6461,"high_eth":36.038,"low_usd":74258,"high_usd":87323},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2607,"high_eth":39.0799,"low_usd":68478,"high_usd":94694},"sigma_log":0.081,"multiple_of_floor":1.0935,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":100000,"ask_usd":223577457,"z":98.88,"z_text":"98.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-11-04T17:42:47.000Z","days_listed":1},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0795,"term":"attr:Mohawk Dark","label":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53,"weighted_sales":13.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.4,"date":"2017-07-12","block":4010238,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":32.347},{"eth":0.18,"date":"2017-08-12","block":4149772,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":18,"adjusted_eth":31.3586},{"eth":0.275,"date":"2019-01-07","block":7028165,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":0.35,"date":"2019-05-06","block":7704693,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":67,"adjusted_eth":24.1739},{"eth":19,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902794,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":124,"adjusted_eth":28.8705}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.311,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9787,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0481,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":5942,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0715,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.49,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":9787,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1317,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.5,"date":"2026-08-22","punk":5942,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.7847,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.1,"date":"2026-08-15","punk":9787,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3144,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.1,"date":"2025-11-27","punk":2528,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.3145,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":69.69,"date":"2025-08-13","punk":8124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.7284,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":61.69,"date":"2025-08-03","punk":8124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.0422,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0258,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 33.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.6 to 36.0 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 39.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Mohawk Dark -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3474","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}