{"punk":3477,"name":"CryptoPunk #3477","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3477","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3477.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Crazy Hair","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.2934,"usd":85519,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.2295,"high_eth":38.6486,"low_usd":78095,"high_usd":93649},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4316,"high_eth":42.3228,"low_usd":71315,"high_usd":102552},"sigma_log":0.0908,"multiple_of_floor":1.1613,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.2934,"usd":85519,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.2295,"high_eth":38.6486,"low_usd":78095,"high_usd":93649},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4316,"high_eth":42.3228,"low_usd":71315,"high_usd":102552},"sigma_log":0.0908,"multiple_of_floor":1.1613,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-7.5,"beta":-0.0779,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":8.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0,"date":"2024-11-08","block":21145111,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":251,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":144,"date":"2026-02-09","punk":5402,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":146.5559,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.5,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":1928,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.9671,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":113.5,"date":"2026-02-02","punk":5402,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":123.4968,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":80,"date":"2025-03-01","punk":1062,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":70.0836,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":88,"date":"2025-02-04","punk":7488,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":66.9752,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":61,"date":"2025-01-21","punk":1270,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":49.3108,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":170,"date":"2025-01-18","punk":5402,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":138.6926,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50.96,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":1270,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.7653,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.086,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Crazy Hair","sales_12m":59}],"summary":["Estimate 35.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.2 to 38.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.4 to 42.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Clown Eyes Green -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3477","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}