{"punk":3478,"name":"CryptoPunk #3478","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3478","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3478.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mohawk Thin","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.1811,"usd":70708,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.5239,"high_eth":32.1044,"low_usd":64270,"high_usd":77792},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.1087,"high_eth":35.3207,"low_usd":58417,"high_usd":85585},"sigma_log":0.0955,"multiple_of_floor":0.9602,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.1811,"usd":70708,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.5239,"high_eth":32.1044,"low_usd":64270,"high_usd":77792},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.1087,"high_eth":35.3207,"low_usd":58417,"high_usd":85585},"sigma_log":0.0955,"multiple_of_floor":0.9602,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":60,"ask_usd":134146,"z":7.55,"z_text":"7.5σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-04-26T10:13:35.000Z","days_listed":194},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-10.8,"beta":-0.1137,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":11}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.37,"date":"2017-07-19","block":4043817,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":37.481},{"eth":0.06,"date":"2018-01-07","block":4869409,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":18.234},{"eth":0.29,"date":"2018-12-20","block":6919472,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":35.2524},{"eth":51,"date":"2023-10-01","block":18257887,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":161,"adjusted_eth":34.0635},{"eth":55,"date":"2023-11-28","block":18671587,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":131,"adjusted_eth":29.1193},{"eth":57.95,"date":"2023-12-01","block":18694076,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":217,"adjusted_eth":30.978},{"eth":28.25,"date":"2026-03-13","block":24650206,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":286,"adjusted_eth":30.1234},{"eth":27.6,"date":"2026-03-16","block":24670885,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":662,"adjusted_eth":28.8334},{"eth":30.69,"date":"2026-04-26","block":24963516,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":172,"adjusted_eth":30.1347}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7577,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-05-23","punk":1393,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9901,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5499,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-10-16","punk":7625,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4694,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":2451,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6565,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.6549,"date":"2025-05-23","punk":2451,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5406,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.9,"date":"2025-05-18","punk":2451,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9335,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.48,"date":"2025-03-05","punk":8028,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1842,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1042,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 29.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.5 to 32.1 ETH, 2σ range 24.1 to 35.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3478","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}