{"punk":3586,"name":"CryptoPunk #3586","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3586","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3586.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Mole","Peak Spike"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":32.3167,"usd":73476,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8319,"high_eth":35.0084,"low_usd":67827,"high_usd":79596},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5382,"high_eth":37.9244,"low_usd":62612,"high_usd":86226},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0634,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":31.8913,"usd":72509,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4392,"high_eth":34.5476,"low_usd":66934,"high_usd":78548},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.1757,"high_eth":37.4252,"low_usd":61787,"high_usd":85091},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0634,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.7},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0602,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":22.48,"date":"2021-03-02","block":11960898,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":30.0971},{"eth":34.85,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12936713,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":31.913},{"eth":35,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12939678,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":303,"adjusted_eth":32.0504}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.79,"date":"2026-03-21","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3058,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.4,"date":"2026-03-13","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8848,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.97,"date":"2025-11-14","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3304,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.18,"date":"2025-08-09","punk":1026,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.559,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.79,"date":"2025-07-08","punk":4960,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1049,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.46,"date":"2025-05-30","punk":4960,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1109,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.77,"date":"2025-03-21","punk":9243,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1188,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.37,"date":"2025-01-17","punk":9243,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2868,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0019,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 32.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.8 to 35.0 ETH, 2σ range 27.5 to 37.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Mole -7%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3586","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}