{"punk":3661,"name":"CryptoPunk #3661","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3661","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3661.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Vampire Hair"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":39.2287,"usd":95054,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.1708,"high_eth":49.3695,"low_usd":75529,"high_usd":119626},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.7682,"high_eth":62.1318,"low_usd":60015,"high_usd":150550},"sigma_log":0.2299,"multiple_of_floor":1.2908,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":39.2287,"usd":95054,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.1708,"high_eth":49.3695,"low_usd":75529,"high_usd":119626},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.7682,"high_eth":62.1318,"low_usd":60015,"high_usd":150550},"sigma_log":0.2299,"multiple_of_floor":1.2908,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":28,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":28,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 0-1","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":14.9,"beta":0.1387,"term":"count1","label":"1 attribute (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":3.5},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1109,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 0-1","seen":{"n":16,"cover1":0.5,"cover2":0.625,"bias_pct":27.5,"within10":0.25,"within25":0.5,"MdALE_pct":27.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":35,"cover1":0.714,"cover2":0.914,"bias_pct":6.6,"within10":0.571,"within25":0.714,"MdALE_pct":7.8}},"own_sales":[{"eth":11,"date":"2020-09-15","block":10863288,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":239,"adjusted_eth":173.2073},{"eth":25,"date":"2021-02-14","block":11856626,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":53,"adjusted_eth":92.0909},{"eth":36,"date":"2021-02-20","block":11895043,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":221,"adjusted_eth":80.8006},{"eth":60,"date":"2021-04-11","block":12220726,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":114,"adjusted_eth":92.3241},{"eth":62,"date":"2021-04-27","block":12320239,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":158,"adjusted_eth":85.7225},{"eth":72.5,"date":"2021-08-03","block":12953805,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":66.7659},{"eth":139.95,"date":"2021-10-20","block":13456841,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":44.3029},{"eth":90,"date":"2021-12-09","block":13768792,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":38.1518},{"eth":76,"date":"2022-12-23","block":16250143,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":36,"adjusted_eth":36.8246},{"eth":84.95,"date":"2023-01-05","block":16342984,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":330,"adjusted_eth":38.9445},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-11-16","block":23808651,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":240,"adjusted_eth":45.6335}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.25,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2301,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.26,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9216,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3401,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.75,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7296,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3212,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":67.5,"date":"2026-07-16","punk":4822,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":63.2539,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36.9,"date":"2026-06-11","punk":9541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2933,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.8,"date":"2026-04-03","punk":7072,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.8498,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":37.77,"date":"2026-02-07","punk":1590,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.4404,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1917,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 39.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.2 to 49.4 ETH, 2σ range 24.8 to 62.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 1 attribute (vs 3) +15%, Vampire Hair -11%.","In the backtest, Male 0-1 sales landed within ±7.8% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±27.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3661","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}