{"punk":3684,"name":"CryptoPunk #3684","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3684","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3684.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Gold Chain","Earring","Tiara"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":53.777,"usd":130306,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":40.4088,"high_eth":71.5678,"low_usd":97914,"high_usd":173415},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3637,"high_eth":95.2442,"low_usd":73574,"high_usd":230784},"sigma_log":0.2858,"multiple_of_floor":1.7696,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":53.777,"usd":130306,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":40.4088,"high_eth":71.5678,"low_usd":97914,"high_usd":173415},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3637,"high_eth":95.2442,"low_usd":73574,"high_usd":230784},"sigma_log":0.2858,"multiple_of_floor":1.7696,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":2000,"ask_usd":4471549,"z":12.65,"z_text":"12.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-04-02T23:16:55.000Z","days_listed":1678},"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7},{"pct":70.6,"beta":0.5339,"term":"attr:Tiara","label":"Tiara","sales_12m":4,"weighted_sales":1.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":49,"date":"2020-09-12","block":10849929,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":90,"adjusted_eth":1079.0652}],"comparables":[{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":3190,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1839,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.008,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3976,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9598,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1914,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0715,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3806,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":9546,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.5069,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9972,"date":"2026-08-06","punk":3190,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9176,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":100,"date":"2026-06-28","punk":2120,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":93.5077,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.689,"date":"2026-06-16","punk":2903,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3798,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.5613,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":88},{"attribute":"Gold Chain","sales_12m":24},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303}],"summary":["Estimate 53.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 40.4 to 71.6 ETH, 2σ range 30.4 to 95.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Tiara +71%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3684","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}