{"punk":3698,"name":"CryptoPunk #3698","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3698","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3698.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Goat","Cowboy Hat","3D Glasses","Clown Nose"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":111.3539,"usd":269820,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":59.6709,"high_eth":207.8012,"low_usd":144587,"high_usd":503519},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.9757,"high_eth":387.7847,"low_usd":77480,"high_usd":939634},"sigma_log":0.6239,"multiple_of_floor":3.6642,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":111.3539,"usd":269820,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":59.6709,"high_eth":207.8012,"low_usd":144587,"high_usd":503519},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.9757,"high_eth":387.7847,"low_usd":77480,"high_usd":939634},"sigma_log":0.6239,"multiple_of_floor":3.6642,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":124.69,"ask_usd":278779,"z":0.18,"z_text":"0.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-04-02T14:54:35.000Z","days_listed":582},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7},{"pct":95.5,"beta":0.6705,"term":"attr:Cowboy Hat","label":"Cowboy Hat","sales_12m":10,"weighted_sales":2.9},{"pct":75.9,"beta":0.565,"term":"attr:3D Glasses","label":"3D Glasses","sales_12m":11,"weighted_sales":3.6},{"pct":-6.4,"beta":-0.0656,"term":"attr:Clown Nose","label":"Clown Nose","sales_12m":25,"weighted_sales":6.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":82,"date":"2025-01-07","block":21574948,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":67.369},{"eth":86.5,"date":"2025-03-14","block":22041749,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":68.4745}],"comparables":[{"eth":100,"date":"2025-08-02","punk":7414,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":56.2882,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4293,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.53,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0366,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.5085,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35.17,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":1241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3982,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.3992,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.4999,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1206,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2186,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":1.235,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 111 ETH (beta), 1σ range 59.7 to 208 ETH, 2σ range 32.0 to 388 ETH, confidence Low, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Goat -7%, Cowboy Hat +96%, 3D Glasses +76%, Clown Nose -6%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3698","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}