{"punk":3764,"name":"CryptoPunk #3764","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3764","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3764.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Normal Beard","Hoodie","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":125.852,"usd":304950,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":63.5434,"high_eth":249.2583,"low_usd":153971,"high_usd":603973},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":32.0834,"high_eth":493.6729,"low_usd":77741,"high_usd":1196210},"sigma_log":0.6834,"multiple_of_floor":4.1412,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":125.852,"usd":304950,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":63.5434,"high_eth":249.2583,"low_usd":153971,"high_usd":603973},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":32.0834,"high_eth":493.6729,"low_usd":77741,"high_usd":1196210},"sigma_log":0.6834,"multiple_of_floor":4.1412,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":237.4,"beta":1.2162,"term":"attr:Hoodie","label":"Hoodie","sales_12m":20,"weighted_sales":7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":190,"date":"2022-05-23","block":14831035,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":154,"adjusted_eth":117.9591},{"eth":200,"date":"2024-01-21","block":19054081,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":98.9097}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":5559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8998,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":140,"date":"2026-08-17","punk":3298,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":132.2537,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-05-05","punk":3624,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.375,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":115,"date":"2026-05-04","punk":7213,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":112.9192,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":101,"date":"2026-04-23","punk":7213,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":105.841,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":3624,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5147,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":199.99,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":7674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":116.9013,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":145,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":1946,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":84.7576,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":1.3574,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":39},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 126 ETH (beta), 1σ range 63.5 to 249 ETH, 2σ range 32.1 to 494 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Hoodie +237%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3764","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}