{"punk":3774,"name":"CryptoPunk #3774","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3774","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3774.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Straight Hair Dark"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.6779,"usd":74335,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1235,"high_eth":32.3154,"low_usd":70569,"high_usd":78303},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6477,"high_eth":34.0403,"low_usd":66993,"high_usd":82482},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0095,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.6779,"usd":74335,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1235,"high_eth":32.3154,"low_usd":70569,"high_usd":78303},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6477,"high_eth":34.0403,"low_usd":66993,"high_usd":82482},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0095,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.088,"date":"2017-07-11","block":4008305,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":7.6409},{"eth":0.35,"date":"2017-07-19","block":4041488,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":35.455},{"eth":0.425,"date":"2019-11-02","block":8858457,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":51.663},{"eth":4.59,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10949469,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":210,"adjusted_eth":24.0916},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-05-15","block":25100379,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":13,"adjusted_eth":29.4287},{"eth":32.28,"date":"2026-05-17","block":25114983,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"relay-same-block","log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":29.5034},{"eth":32.2812,"date":"2026-05-17","block":25114983,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":29.5045},{"eth":35.5093,"date":"2026-06-11","block":25294704,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":261,"adjusted_eth":33.0009}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":8514,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.8027,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.008,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3976,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9598,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.39,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":8514,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3918,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.03,"date":"2026-09-28","punk":8514,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.0072,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.9949,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4554,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9823,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.95,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":4554,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.3228,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.41,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":4711,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":4554,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.464,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":88},{"attribute":"Straight Hair Dark","sales_12m":29}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.1 to 32.3 ETH, 2σ range 27.6 to 34.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","No attribute of this punk has a clear premium in recent sales, so the estimate is the type multiple.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3774","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}