{"punk":3778,"name":"CryptoPunk #3778","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3778","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3778.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Front Beard","Stringy Hair","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":28.4784,"usd":69005,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.7006,"high_eth":31.5566,"low_usd":62275,"high_usd":76464},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.1936,"high_eth":34.9674,"low_usd":56200,"high_usd":84729},"sigma_log":0.1026,"multiple_of_floor":0.9371,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":28.4784,"usd":69005,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.7006,"high_eth":31.5566,"low_usd":62275,"high_usd":76464},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.1936,"high_eth":34.9674,"low_usd":56200,"high_usd":84729},"sigma_log":0.1026,"multiple_of_floor":0.9371,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0757,"term":"attr:Front Beard","label":"Front Beard","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":11.3},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":25.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.63,"date":"2020-03-21","block":9716360,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":31.9095}],"comparables":[{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3703,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.4,"date":"2026-07-28","punk":5327,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2347,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.8,"date":"2026-07-25","punk":909,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.621,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-07-15","punk":5327,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9241,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.99,"date":"2026-06-16","punk":8918,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2357,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.23,"date":"2026-05-11","punk":3315,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9899,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":909,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0424,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1286,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 28.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.7 to 31.6 ETH, 2σ range 23.2 to 35.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Front Beard -7%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3778","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}