{"punk":3824,"name":"CryptoPunk #3824","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3824","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3824.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Choker","Bandana","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":37.1128,"usd":89927,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2973,"high_eth":41.3654,"low_usd":80682,"high_usd":100232},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.8742,"high_eth":46.1053,"low_usd":72388,"high_usd":111717},"sigma_log":0.1085,"multiple_of_floor":1.2212,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":37.1128,"usd":89927,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2973,"high_eth":41.3654,"low_usd":80682,"high_usd":100232},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.8742,"high_eth":46.1053,"low_usd":72388,"high_usd":111717},"sigma_log":0.1085,"multiple_of_floor":1.2212,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":58,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":58,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7},{"pct":17.7,"beta":0.163,"term":"attr:Choker","label":"Choker","sales_12m":2,"weighted_sales":0.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":44,"date":"2021-02-28","block":11947349,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":196,"adjusted_eth":60.8907},{"eth":42,"date":"2021-03-03","block":11968197,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":21,"adjusted_eth":58.0437},{"eth":70,"date":"2021-05-24","block":12499257,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":209,"adjusted_eth":141.82},{"eth":100,"date":"2021-12-17","block":13820005,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":92,"adjusted_eth":49.8197},{"eth":48.95,"date":"2024-11-30","block":21297842,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":160,"adjusted_eth":37.1898}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.33,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":1895,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1657,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-03","punk":1895,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1429,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.4,"date":"2026-08-09","punk":1895,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5225,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-06-29","punk":1895,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9429,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.63,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":1895,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9031,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":24.611,"date":"2026-04-16","punk":1895,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7775,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.69,"date":"2026-01-25","punk":3874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.6083,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.94,"date":"2025-04-09","punk":3874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4197,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1904,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Bandana","sales_12m":63},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 37.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.3 to 41.4 ETH, 2σ range 29.9 to 46.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Choker +18%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3824","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}