{"punk":3825,"name":"CryptoPunk #3825","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3825","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3825.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Do-rag","Cigarette","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":36.0569,"usd":87369,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.7452,"high_eth":39.7035,"low_usd":79344,"high_usd":96205},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7377,"high_eth":43.7188,"low_usd":72057,"high_usd":105934},"sigma_log":0.0963,"multiple_of_floor":1.1865,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":36.0569,"usd":87369,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.7452,"high_eth":39.7035,"low_usd":79344,"high_usd":96205},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7377,"high_eth":43.7188,"low_usd":72057,"high_usd":105934},"sigma_log":0.0963,"multiple_of_floor":1.1865,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-03","block":8477142,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":92,"date":"2021-09-02","block":13148308,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":88,"adjusted_eth":29.4334},{"eth":123.45,"date":"2021-09-27","block":13309433,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":92,"adjusted_eth":36.6014},{"eth":90,"date":"2021-11-26","block":13686976,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":32.1966},{"eth":90,"date":"2022-01-28","block":14097080,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":232,"adjusted_eth":32.2155},{"eth":73,"date":"2022-03-17","block":14404358,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":328,"adjusted_eth":33.1115},{"eth":84.8,"date":"2022-03-28","block":14474759,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":81,"adjusted_eth":36.2968},{"eth":0.1,"date":"2022-06-05","block":14907558,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":0.0634},{"eth":63.49,"date":"2022-06-18","block":14982865,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":245,"adjusted_eth":31.3479},{"eth":84.6,"date":"2022-07-08","block":15104811,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":35.7331},{"eth":57,"date":"2023-07-13","block":17683077,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":165,"adjusted_eth":34.3424},{"eth":48,"date":"2023-10-19","block":18386732,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":214,"adjusted_eth":33.5338},{"eth":49,"date":"2023-10-26","block":18431293,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":246,"adjusted_eth":33.2762}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-10-11","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3298,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.842,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":3860,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.9243,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":165,"date":"2026-06-18","punk":9953,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":153.344,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.95,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":9548,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3425,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":130,"date":"2026-05-19","punk":8870,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":116.2655,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.95,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7059,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.69,"date":"2026-04-12","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2397,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1074,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110},{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 36.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 39.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3825","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}