{"punk":3834,"name":"CryptoPunk #3834","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3834","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3834.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Front Beard","Frumpy Hair","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":32.0474,"usd":72864,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.5786,"high_eth":34.7222,"low_usd":67251,"high_usd":78945},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3,"high_eth":37.6203,"low_usd":62070,"high_usd":85534},"sigma_log":0.0802,"multiple_of_floor":1.0545,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":31.6256,"usd":71905,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1893,"high_eth":34.2652,"low_usd":66366,"high_usd":77906},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.9407,"high_eth":37.1251,"low_usd":61253,"high_usd":84409},"sigma_log":0.0802,"multiple_of_floor":1.0545,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":2,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":2,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0757,"term":"attr:Front Beard","label":"Front Beard","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":11.3},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.076,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":60,"weighted_sales":20}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":19.5,"date":"2021-03-08","block":11998745,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":297,"adjusted_eth":29.99},{"eth":22,"date":"2021-03-15","block":12042981,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":187,"adjusted_eth":32.989},{"eth":20.99,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12363573,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":249,"adjusted_eth":30.8271},{"eth":83.83,"date":"2021-11-13","block":13610653,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":124,"adjusted_eth":31.4258}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.49,"date":"2026-08-30","punk":5975,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3438,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.4,"date":"2026-08-29","punk":3218,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4792,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-07-31","punk":8949,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.5271,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.79,"date":"2026-04-07","punk":8949,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5017,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-03-25","punk":2412,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0885,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-02-12","punk":8949,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1642,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":3218,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0873,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28,"date":"2026-01-02","punk":2309,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0007,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0102,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 32.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.6 to 34.7 ETH, 2σ range 27.3 to 37.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Front Beard -7%, Frumpy Hair -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3834","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}