{"punk":3836,"name":"CryptoPunk #3836","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3836","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3836.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Front Beard","Crazy Hair"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.3125,"usd":73450,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7986,"high_eth":33.0537,"low_usd":67358,"high_usd":80092},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4932,"high_eth":36.0427,"low_usd":61772,"high_usd":87334},"sigma_log":0.0866,"multiple_of_floor":0.9974,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.3125,"usd":73450,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7986,"high_eth":33.0537,"low_usd":67358,"high_usd":80092},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4932,"high_eth":36.0427,"low_usd":61772,"high_usd":87334},"sigma_log":0.0866,"multiple_of_floor":0.9974,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0757,"term":"attr:Front Beard","label":"Front Beard","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":11.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":24,"date":"2021-03-02","block":11959888,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":225,"adjusted_eth":32.5607},{"eth":55,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12973436,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":177,"adjusted_eth":34.1112},{"eth":122,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13113142,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":26.9257},{"eth":152,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13115303,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":149,"adjusted_eth":33.5467},{"eth":60,"date":"2022-01-10","block":13975846,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":103,"adjusted_eth":29.9163},{"eth":73.95,"date":"2022-01-25","block":14074718,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":28.8305},{"eth":66.5,"date":"2022-04-07","block":14541644,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":247,"adjusted_eth":30.3171},{"eth":61.94,"date":"2022-04-29","block":14676418,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":107,"adjusted_eth":30.6074},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-05-04","block":22407579,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":31.0102},{"eth":45.92,"date":"2025-06-13","block":22692654,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":262,"adjusted_eth":31.7233}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.89,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":7310,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.061,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.499,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":9176,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.399,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":45,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":8879,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":44.5456,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":60,"date":"2026-10-21","punk":6066,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":58.3115,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":7608,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3999,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3703,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":55,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":8264,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":53.418,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0662,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Crazy Hair","sales_12m":59}],"summary":["Estimate 30.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.8 to 33.1 ETH, 2σ range 25.5 to 36.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Front Beard -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3836","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}