{"punk":3838,"name":"CryptoPunk #3838","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3838","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3838.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Headband","VR"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":41.4541,"usd":100447,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.7841,"high_eth":48.0225,"low_usd":86708,"high_usd":116362},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.8896,"high_eth":55.6317,"low_usd":74848,"high_usd":134800},"sigma_log":0.1471,"multiple_of_floor":1.3641,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":41.4541,"usd":100447,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.7841,"high_eth":48.0225,"low_usd":86708,"high_usd":116362},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.8896,"high_eth":55.6317,"low_usd":74848,"high_usd":134800},"sigma_log":0.1471,"multiple_of_floor":1.3641,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.7},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":85,"date":"2021-12-12","block":13791755,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":67,"adjusted_eth":37.9875}],"comparables":[{"eth":29.6,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":7232,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1476,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":7232,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.2193,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.95,"date":"2025-07-07","punk":6867,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.5943,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44,"date":"2024-11-22","punk":6867,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.159,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2024-11-13","punk":6968,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.0356,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.95,"date":"2024-11-06","punk":9589,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.5286,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3391,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9803,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7067,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2468,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48}],"summary":["Estimate 41.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.8 to 48.0 ETH, 2σ range 30.9 to 55.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Muttonchops -9%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3838","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}