{"punk":3841,"name":"CryptoPunk #3841","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3841","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3841.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Earring","Orange Side"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":40.0635,"usd":97077,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.7171,"high_eth":46.2333,"low_usd":84122,"high_usd":112027},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0842,"high_eth":53.3532,"low_usd":72896,"high_usd":129279},"sigma_log":0.1432,"multiple_of_floor":1.3183,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":40.0635,"usd":97077,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.7171,"high_eth":46.2333,"low_usd":84122,"high_usd":112027},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0842,"high_eth":53.3532,"low_usd":72896,"high_usd":129279},"sigma_log":0.1432,"multiple_of_floor":1.3183,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":59,"ask_usd":131911,"z":2.7,"z_text":"2.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-09-23T06:24:59.000Z","days_listed":44},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7},{"pct":27.1,"beta":0.2395,"term":"attr:Orange Side","label":"Orange Side","sales_12m":5,"weighted_sales":1.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":4,"date":"2020-01-13","block":9273504,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":57,"adjusted_eth":213.2632},{"eth":85,"date":"2021-03-11","block":12019870,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":196,"adjusted_eth":123.0071},{"eth":79,"date":"2021-03-14","block":12038590,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":114.3243},{"eth":122,"date":"2022-02-13","block":14199314,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":136,"adjusted_eth":51.0054},{"eth":96,"date":"2022-12-30","block":16298801,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":44.5819},{"eth":79,"date":"2023-06-02","block":17395141,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":174,"adjusted_eth":45.3411}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.33,"date":"2026-04-18","punk":3267,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.823,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-01-19","punk":6674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8181,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58.69,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":7973,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0417,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-05-26","punk":7973,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.7224,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.8,"date":"2026-11-03","punk":1721,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7889,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":6370,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9763,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8017,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-26","punk":2486,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8955,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2669,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303}],"summary":["Estimate 40.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.7 to 46.2 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 53.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Orange Side +27%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3841","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}