{"punk":3854,"name":"CryptoPunk #3854","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3854","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3854.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Earring","Police Cap"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.9295,"usd":87060,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6614,"high_eth":39.5247,"low_usd":79141,"high_usd":95772},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.6905,"high_eth":43.4796,"low_usd":71943,"high_usd":105355},"sigma_log":0.0954,"multiple_of_floor":1.1823,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.9295,"usd":87060,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6614,"high_eth":39.5247,"low_usd":79141,"high_usd":95772},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.6905,"high_eth":43.4796,"low_usd":71943,"high_usd":105355},"sigma_log":0.0954,"multiple_of_floor":1.1823,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":28,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":28,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.5,"date":"2019-05-06","block":7705539,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":34.5341},{"eth":1.25,"date":"2020-05-19","block":10095789,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":97,"adjusted_eth":47.4844},{"eth":24,"date":"2021-07-16","block":12835637,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":36.6513},{"eth":57.78,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12969018,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":237,"adjusted_eth":35.8354},{"eth":68,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12972076,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":42.1739},{"eth":99,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13108278,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":72,"adjusted_eth":32.7023},{"eth":119.98,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13112249,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":26.4798},{"eth":159,"date":"2021-08-29","block":13121234,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":184,"adjusted_eth":37.8981},{"eth":66,"date":"2022-04-28","block":14675712,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":32.382}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-05-07","punk":4708,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8998,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.75,"date":"2026-03-24","punk":4824,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7745,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.6,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":4824,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1179,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":4824,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9998,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.5,"date":"2026-02-01","punk":2401,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.7258,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":25.65,"date":"2026-01-16","punk":2401,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.0286,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.49,"date":"2025-12-27","punk":2925,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9268,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":24.91,"date":"2025-12-22","punk":2925,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.0584,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1038,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Police Cap","sales_12m":29}],"summary":["Estimate 35.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 39.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3854","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}