{"punk":3903,"name":"CryptoPunk #3903","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3903","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3903.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Luxurious Beard","Headband","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":37.2962,"usd":84798,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.519,"high_eth":41.499,"low_usd":76210,"high_usd":94353},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1243,"high_eth":46.1755,"low_usd":68491,"high_usd":104986},"sigma_log":0.1068,"multiple_of_floor":1.2273,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":36.8053,"usd":83682,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.0778,"high_eth":40.9528,"low_usd":75207,"high_usd":93111},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7278,"high_eth":45.5677,"low_usd":67590,"high_usd":103604},"sigma_log":0.1068,"multiple_of_floor":1.2273,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.285,"date":"2017-08-07","block":4128524,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":42,"adjusted_eth":34.1886},{"eth":32,"date":"2024-09-12","block":20736593,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":305,"adjusted_eth":32.7648},{"eth":32.2,"date":"2024-09-27","block":20844563,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":169,"adjusted_eth":34.7616},{"eth":39.75,"date":"2024-11-14","block":21185316,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":276,"adjusted_eth":36.1353},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-02-02","block":24366981,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":32.2127}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":5559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5063,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":1195,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":42.8429,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.45,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":4942,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.5537,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56.99,"date":"2025-08-12","punk":6467,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.6535,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53,"date":"2025-04-21","punk":3331,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.8445,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.02,"date":"2024-11-21","punk":7280,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.0053,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.33,"date":"2024-11-11","punk":8179,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8951,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.562,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1414,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Luxurious Beard","sales_12m":41},{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 37.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.5 to 41.5 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 46.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3903","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}